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FX option expiries for Oct 5 NY cut

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Economists at ANZ Bank had anticipated the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to tighten via 50 bps in October. They now have the RBA money charge goal peaking at 3.6% in May 2023, up 25 bps from preceding top of 3.35%.

Peak in the RBA’s tightening cycle lifted
“We see the RBA’s choice to sluggish the tempo of charge hikes as extending the length of the cycle. The slower tempo of price hikes will increase the hazard that prices want to go greater than until now expected, as demand stays too robust and sentiment is at the beginning boosted by using the RBA’s moderation.”

“Our revised price course has the RBA tightening through 25 bps in November, then pausing till successive 25 bps will increase in February and March. From there we suppose proof of similarly acceleration in wages increase will push the RBA to tighten by means of a remaining 25 bps in May to 3.6%.”


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