Senior Economist at UOB Group Alvin Liew assesses the present day GDP figures in Singapore.
Key Takeaways
“Singapore’s remaining 3Q22 GDP got here in at 4.1% y/y from 4.5% boom in 2Q22, decrease than our name of 4.2% and Bloomberg ballot of 4.3%. On a seasonally adjusted basis, 3Q22 GDP rebounded with the aid of 1.1% q/q, from -0.1% in 2Q22. Manufacturing quarter slowed as predicted to 0.8% y/y from 5.6% in 2Q22 whilst offerings region outperformed with a 5.8% y/y obtain in contrast to 5.0% in 2Q22. All important offerings clusters extended on a y/y foundation besides for accommodation.”
“The message from the MTI persevered to be one of higher caution, in particular on the moderation in exterior outlook and heightened exterior risks. It was once cited that MTI has eliminated the point out of COVID-19 dangers in contrast to its Aug report. MTI now expects GDP boom to “be round 3.5 percent” for 2023 and average to “0.5 to 2.5 percent” for 2023. GDP Outlook – With the 3Q22 result mostly inside our expectations, we maintain our GDP increase outlook for Singapore at 3.5% for 2022, earlier than easing to 0.7% in 2023 to mirror the extensive slowing in exterior outlook subsequent year.”
“MAS Outlook – The modern day professional 3Q GDP facts and 2023 boom outlook does no longer exchange our economic coverage outlook. Singapore’s economic coverage is similarly into a restrictive placing after 5 rounds of tightening on the grounds that Oct 2021. With the MAS pulling solely one lever in its Oct 2022 decision, there is nevertheless room for in addition tightening into 2023, mainly if core inflation does no longer exhibit symptoms of moderation. While we accept as true with off-cycles are possibly completed for the the rest of 2022, it may also nevertheless be a opportunity specially in early 2023.”
