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Higher interest rates and lower long-run growth more likely than permanently higher inflation – Nomura

Central banks and most economists are forecasting inflation will generally return to 2% at the cease of their forecast horizons. But will it? Economists at Nomura share their thoughts.

Will inflation settle at 2%?
“There may additionally be tail dangers of inflation settling at greater than 2% in each the medium and lengthy term, even though for now, this is now not our base case.”

“In the medium term, labour markets may additionally stay sufficiently tight and inflation expectations can also show to be stubbornly high. In the lengthy term, we assume the local weather transition, demographic challenges and de-globalisation will make accomplishing 2% inflation an increasing number of challenging.”

“Central banks have a 2% inflation target. Does that imply these objectives go out of the window? We don’t suppose so. A 2% goal is fundamental to keep the credibility of central banks.”

“Instead of coming into a world of completely greater inflation, we consider we are greater possibly to enter a world of completely greater activity costs and decrease long-run growth.”

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